USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook April 2019

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook April 2019

Lower Expected Domestic Production Reduces

U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratio for 2018/19

The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projects U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2018/19 at 1.625 million short tons, raw value (STRV)—a 42,000-STRV reduction from the previous month’s forecast. The reduction is due to lower expected production from both the cane and beet sugar sectors. No changes are made to projected total use for 2018/19.

There are no changes to the Mexico supply and use projection from the March WASDE. Ending stocks are projected to be 1.420 million metric tons, actual value (MT). A stocks-to- consumption ratio of 30.8 percent is relatively high by historical standards, but lower than the 33.0 percent level estimated for 2017/18. Exports to non-U.S. destinations will be an important component for the Mexican sugar market heading into the summer for 2018/19.

U.S. high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) production was 2.8 percent lower in the 2018 calendar year compared with 2017. Domestic deliveries of HFCS fell 2.4 percent in 2018, as exports continue to account for a larger share of U.S. supplies.

Michael McConnell, coordinator  michael.mcconnell@ers.usda.gov

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 60 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, David Montgomery III, and Jody Payne

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