USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook August 18, 2022

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook August 18, 2022

U.S. Outlook Summary

Higher Sugarbeet Yields Raised U.S. Sugar Supply in 2022/23

The August 2022 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) slightly reduced the 2021/22 beet sugar production from last month by 1,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) and increased the high-tier sugar imports by 47,000 STRV (table 1). The 2021/22 outlook for high- tier imports now stands at 325,000 STRV, a record high and 150,000-STRV or 55-percent larger than the previous high of 210,000 STRV in 2009/10. The net effect of these changes raised ending stocks by 46,000 STRV, resulting in a higher stocks-to-use of 14.3 percent from last month’s 14 percent.

Correspondingly, U.S. 2022/23 beginning stocks are increased by the same amount, 46,000 STRV. The other change to the 2022/23 supply-use ledger is a 204,000-STRV increase in beet sugar production resulting from a higher yield outlook. In the August Crop Production report, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) published its first survey-based national yield forecast of 29.2 tons per acre (figure 1). This is larger than both the WASDE’s model-derived estimate used in the previous months (27.9 tons per acre) and the yield forecast from the most recent processors’ submission to the Farm Service Agency’s Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report (29 tons). The combination of these changes raised 2022/23 sugar supply by 250,000 STRV. Ending stocks are increased by the same amount, resulting to a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent, up from last month’s 12.4 percent.

There has been no announcement to date for the 2022/23 additional specialty sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ). The Department of Commerce will announce the second fiscal year 2023 U.S. Needs calculation, based on a 13.5-percent stocks-to-use ratio and the Mexican Export Limit, after the September WASDE.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator

Adeline Yeh, contributor

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III