USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook December 15, 2022

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook December 15, 2022

2022/23 U.S. Sugar Supply Mostly Unchanged

In the December 2022 WASDE, the 2022/23 U.S. total sugar supply slightly increased from last month by 5,720 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.347 million as lower beet sugar production is offset by higher cane sugar production and imports from Mexico (table 1). As such, total supply would be 140,000-STRV lower (1 percent) than 2021/22’s 14.486 million since the year- over-year increase in beginning stocks is offset by decline in production and imports (figure 1).

Total domestic sugar production is lowered by 47,000-STRV from last month to 9.039 million and would be lower than the previous 2 years. Beet sugar production is down by 67,000 STRV to 4.927 million based on processors’ reduced forecast of sugarbeets available for slicing reported in the USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA) Sweetener Market Data (SMD). This would represent a 228,000 STRV reduction (or 4.4 percent) from last year’s 5.155 million and would be the second lowest since 2015/16.

Louisiana cane sugar production is raised by 18,460 STRV to 2.025 million on processor reporting of an increased estimate of sucrose recovery and of cane area dedicated to sugar relative to seedcane. If realized, this would be 100,000-STRV higher than last year’s 1.924 million (5.2 percent) and would set a record for the State, surpassing the prior record of 1.938 million in 2018/19 by 86,000 (4.5 percent). Cane sugar production in Texas is increased slightly by 1,000 STRV to 97,000 on processor reporting but is still the lowest since 1997/98.

There were no changes to the import categories except those coming from Mexico, which are raised by 53,000 STRV to 1.477 million to fulfill a December stocks-to-use ratio at 13.5 percent per the terms of the U.S.-Mexico Suspension Agreements. This brings the total imports to 3.494 million STRV, which is 152,000-STRV lower (4.2 percent) than last year. The total sugar use forecast of 12.640 million STRV is unchanged from last month, reflecting a 32,000-STRV decline (0.3 percent) from 2021/22. These changes result in ending stocks of 1.707 million STRV, up marginally by 5,720 from last month but down 108,000 (6 percent) from last year.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator

Adeline Yeh, contributor

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III