USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook June 18, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook June 18, 2024

U.S. Outlook Summary
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2023/24 U.S. sugar
supply is reduced from last month by 34,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.377 million on
lower production more than offsetting higher imports. Production is down 50,000 STRV to 9.080
million solely on the reduction in beet sugar output to 5.045 million (table 1). In 2023/24, imports
from Mexico are trimmed 31,000 STRV to 466,000 on the diminished outlook for low polarity sugar
produced exclusively for the U.S. market. This reduction was more than offset by a 47,000-STRV
increase in the “High-tier tariff/other” category to account for cane refiners’ importation of raw sugar
equivalent of cane molasses as an input to produce refined cane sugar. This accounting on the
supply side of the balance sheet ensures that direct consumption imports (DCI)—a component of
domestic sugar deliveries for human consumption—are estimated correctly on the use side. With
the 2023/24 total use unchanged at 12.653 million STRV, ending stocks are down 34,000 STRV to
1.724 million, translating to a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent, up 0.3 percentage points.
In 2024/25, U.S. sugar supply is decreased from last month by 19,000 STRV to 14 million on lower
beginning stocks and reduced production more than offsetting the increase in imports. Sugar
production is down 32,000 STRV to 9.2 million after Florida’s sugar output is reduced following the
cane processors’ lower forecast of 2.004 million in the Farm Service Agency, Sweetener Market
Data (SMD) report. To ensure DCI is correctly accounted in 2024/25, the forecast for the “High-tier
tariff/other” import category is similarly increased by 47,000-STRV assuming that the average
monthly import pace of molasses continues. Total use remains at 12.555 million STRV, the same
as last month. Given the USDA additional specialty sugar import announcement was published
after the WASDE, ending stocks are projected at 1.445 million STRV and the corresponding
stocks-to-use ratio is down 0.2 percentage points to 11.5 percent.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III