USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook March 14, 2023

U.S. Sugar Supply Down; Use Raised

In the March 2023 WASDE, the 2022/23 U.S. total sugar supply is reduced by 54,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.460 million from last month as the increase in both beet and cane sugar production is offset by the decrease in imports (table 1).

Beet sugar production in 2022/23 is raised by 60,000 STRV to 5.160 million from last month on an increased forecast of sucrose recovery based on processors’ August‒January data reported in the USDA, Farm Service Agency Sweetener Market Data (SMD). If realized, the updated forecast would surpass last year’s 5.155 million STRV and would be the second largest production behind 2017/18’s 5.270 million. Also based on the SMD, cane sugar production is up by 19,000 STRV to 4.150 million from last month–a new record exceeding 2020/21’s 4.142 million–as the 30,000-STRV combined increase in Florida and Louisiana countered the 11,000- STRV decrease in Texas. In total, sugar production is raised by 79,000 STRV from last month to a record-high 9.310 million, surpassing 2017/18’s 9.293 million (figure 1).

Total imports in 2022/23 are lowered by 134,000 STRV to 3.330 million from last month as the anticipated 172,000-STRV reduction of imports from Mexico to 1.306 million countered the increased forecast for high-tier tariff imports and the 2021/22 World Trade Organization (WTO) raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 31,000 STRV to 156,000 from last month due to larger-than-expected entries of refined sugar paying the high- duty. The raw sugar TRQ imports are up 7,000 STRV to 1.153 million on an upward revision in imports under the extended 2021/22 raw sugar that arrived by the end of 2022.

The 2022/23 forecast of sugar delivered for human consumption is raised 100,000 STRV to 12.6 million based on the strong pace through January. Total use is raised by the same amount to 12.705 million STRV. Ending stocks are lowered by 154,000 to 1.720 million from last month and the resulting ending stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5 percent, down by 1.3 percentage points from last month’s 14.8 percent.