USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook May 16, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook May 16, 2024

U.S. Outlook Summary
In the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2023/24 U.S. sugar
supply is reduced from last month by 63,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.411 million on
lower production more than offsetting higher imports. Sugar production is down by 84,000 STRV to
9.131 million, with decreases in beet and cane sugar output mostly due to unfavorable weather
(table 1). Imports are increased by 21,000 STRV to 3.438 million primarily on a lower shortfall for
the World Trade Organization (WTO) raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) as extra volume is
expected from the Philippines. Total use is lowered by 100,000 STRV to 12.653 million on a
100,000-STRV reduction to domestic sugar deliveries for food and beverage consumption to
12.350 million based on continued slow pace. The other delivery component (non-food) and
exports are unchanged at 105,000 STRV and 198,000 STRV, respectively. Exports in the current
year—the largest in a decade—are expected to consist of refined beet and cane sugar mostly to
Mexico. The increase is anticipated after the Mexican government’s April 5 announcement
temporarily allowing duty-free imports of sugar participating in the U.S. re-export import programs
to fulfill Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX)
requirements. With a larger downward adjustment in use than in supply, ending stocks are up by
37,000 STRV to 1.758 million and stocks-to-use ratio by 0.4 percentage points to 13.9 percent.
The 2024/25 total supply is initially forecast at 14.019 million, about 400,000-STRV lower (3
percent) than 2023/24 as higher beet and cane sugar production are more than offset by lower
beginning stocks and imports. Sugar imports under the WTO TRQs are set at the minimum
commitment levels (1.162 million STRV), imports under free trade agreements (FTAs) at
established levels (254,000 STRV), re-export imports at 200,000 STRV, and high-tier tariff imports
at 216,000 STRV—all refined sugar (i.e., high-tier tariff raw sugar imports are initially forecast at
zero). The 2024/25 additional specialty refined sugar TRQ has not yet been announced by USDA
but was assumed to be at least equal to the 2023/24 level (about 231,000 STRV) to derive the
initial imports from Mexico of 1.197 million STRV. Total use is forecast at 12.555 million, 98,000-
STRV lower than 2023/24, as exports are reduced to 100,000 STRV on smaller volume destined
for Mexico and total domestic deliveries initially set at 12.455 million, the same as 2023/24. Without
the announcement for additional specialty sugar TRQ, ending stocks are at 1.464 million STRV
and the corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is 11.7 percent.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III