USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook November 16, 2023

U.S. Supply in 2023/24 Increased Marginally; Balance Sheet
in 2022/23 Finalized
In the November 2023 WASDE, the U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is raised from last month by
12,345 STRV to 14.234 million on higher sugar production offsetting lower beginning stocks and
imports (table 1). Cane sugar production in Louisiana, which has been negatively impacted by
drought, is increased by 49,000 STRV to 1.787 million on a higher sugarcane yield forecast in
the USDA, NASS November Crop Production and on adjustments to September production
provided in the final 2022/23 fiscal year data published in the USDA, Farm Service Agency
(FSA) Sweetener Market Data (SMD). U.S. beet sugar production is increased by 211,000
STRV to 5.363 million—a record if realized—on a higher NASS sugarbeet yield forecast,
processors’ estimate of higher sugar content, and adjustments to early production. The
improved outlook for beet sugar production compensates for the drought-reduced production in
Louisiana and Texas, implying a U.S. sugar production of 9.229 million STRV, at par with
2022/23’s 9.249 million (figure 1).
Total imports in 2023/24 are reduced by 146,000 STRV to 3.130 million, the lowest in 6 years.
High-tier tariff sugar imports are increased by 100,000 STRV—all expected to be raw sugar,
given current market conditions—to 275,000. However, this increase is countered by an 86,000-
STRV reduction in expected imports from Mexico due to the drought-impacted crop and a
161,000-STRV reduction of raw sugar imports under the WTO TRQ on account of the Philippine
government’s decision to allocate all production to the domestic market. With total use
unchanged at 12.665 million STRV, ending stocks are marginally increased by 12,345 STRV to
1.569 million STRV. The stocks-to-use ratio is 12.4 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from last
month’s 12.3 percent.