USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 15, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 15, 2024

U.S. Outlook Summary
In the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24
sugar supply is lowered from last month by 47,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.894 million
as the combined lower early season production of beet sugar and Louisiana cane sugar offsets
the increase in imports (table 1). Per the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) U.S. Sugar
Monthly Import and Re-Exports Preliminary Final Report for FY 2024, high-tier tariff raw sugar
imports are raised by 62,000 STRV to a record 887,000 STRV, which in turn raises the total
imports paying the high import duty to 1.176 million, also a record. Since sugar use unchanged at
12.663 million STRV, ending stocks are similarly reduced by 47,000 STRV to 2.231 million STRV.
The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 17.6 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from last month but
remains the highest since 2012/13 (figure 1)
The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is increased by 12,000 STRV to 14.293 million as the 21,000-
STRV net increase in domestic production to 9.495 million STRV—the highest on record (figure
2)—and larger imports compensate the decrease in beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is
raised 36,000 STRV to a record 5.347 million mostly on USDA, National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) increased estimate for national sugarbeet yield in its October Crop Production
report. In contrast, cane sugar production is lowered by 15,000 STRV to 4.148 million—but
remains the largest—on adjustments to Louisiana’s September 2024 and 2025 output. Imports
are revised higher this month, largely due to a 28,000-STRV entry of high-tier raw sugar. Despite
the boost, the import forecast would be the lowest since 2007/08. Imports from Mexico are
unchanged at 395,000 STRV, the least in 18 years, because of the United States’ large carryover
inventory, record-high outlook for domestic sugar production, and flat sugar deliveries. Tariff-rate
quota (TRQ) imports under free trade agreements (FTA) are raised by 10,000 STRV because
sugar that did not arrive in calendar third quarter is expected to come in the fourth quarter (thus,
accounted for in fiscal year 2024/25). Since sugar use is unchanged at 12.505 million STRV,
ending stocks are residually calculated at 1.788 million. This translates to a stocks-to-use ratio of
14.3 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from last month.