USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook September 18, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook September 18, 2024

U.S. Outlook Summary
In the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24
sugar supply is raised from last month by 239,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.941 million
on larger imports and domestic production from the early season 2024 crop (table 1). Total
imports are raised by 145,000 STRV to 3.834 million, the second largest behind 2019/20, mostly
on larger high-tier tariff sugar (up 85,000 STRV to a new record of 1.114 million). Deliveries for
human consumption are unchanged at 12.300 million STRV while re-export product deliveries are
increased by 20,000 STRV to 115,000. Thus, with exports down by 16,000 STRV to 225,000,
total use is increased by 4,000 STRV to 12.663 million. With the increase in supply compensating
for the increase in use, ending stocks are raised 235,000 STRV to 2.278 million STRV, which
corresponds to a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0 percent, up 1.8 percentage points from last month
and edges 2012/13 to be the highest in 20 years (figure 1).
The U.S. 2024/25 sugar supply is decreased by 208,000 STRV to 14.282 million as the larger
forecast of U.S. supply reduced the imports needed from Mexico to 395,000 STRV (per the U.S.-
Mexico sugar suspension agreements), which would be the lowest since 2006/07. The upward
adjustment in the 2023/24 domestic production and high-tier imports contributed to the 235,000-
STRV increase in the 2024/25 beginning stocks. Even though the 2024/25 domestic production is
adjusted downwards by 40,000 STRV to 9.474 million, it remains a record if realized (figure 2).
The 52,000-STRV decrease in beet sugar production (due to lower expectation of sugarbeet
area) countered the 26,000-STRV increase in Louisiana cane sugar production (due to larger
yield forecast). Due to the reduction of imports from Mexico, total imports are down by 403,000
STRV to 2.530 million—the lowest since 2.620 million in 2007/2008. With sugar use unchanged at
12.505 million STRV, ending stocks are residually calculated at 1.777 million. This corresponds to
a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than last month but higher than
the expected 13.5 percent because Mexico’s September Export Limit cannot be set lower than
the July volume established by the U.S. Department of Commerce (see the U.S. imports section
for a detailed discussion).