USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook September 2020

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook September 2020

U.S. Sugar Production Raised for 2020/21 on Larger Texas Sugarcane Crop

Higher expected domestic production from the sugarcane sector more than offsets lower beet sugar production. Sugar production for Texas is projected higher based on an upward revision to yields. Beet sugar production is reduced with lower sugar beet yields in several key regions. Overall, U.S. sugar production is projected at 9.292 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 27,000 from the previous estimate and up 16 percent from 2019/20. Sugar production for 2019/20 was not adjusted this month.

For 2019/20, both imports and deliveries are adjusted higher, resulting in a marginal increase in ending stocks and a slight reduction in the stocks-to-use ratio to 14.2 percent. For 2020/21, domestic deliveries and total use projections are raised from the previous month’s forecast. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2020/21 is lowered from 14.6 percent to 13.5 percent on lower imports from Mexico under provisions of the anti-dumping and countervailing (AD/CVD) Suspension Agreements.

Mexico sugar production is unchanged from the previous estimate. Ending stocks in 2019/20 are adjusted slightly higher as a result of reduced exports and stronger imports, which combine to more than offset an increase in deliveries for IMMEX. Ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected unchanged from the previous month, with a slightly higher export estimate equal to the small increase in beginning stocks. Mexico’s total exports are projected higher as a significant boost in shipments to non-U.S. markets exceeds a sizable reduction in exports to the United States.

Andrew Sowell, coordinator
Ronald Lord and Michael McConnell, contributors

Michael McConnell, coordinator  michael.mcconnell@ers.usda.gov

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All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III