World Agricultural and Demand Estimates April 8, 2022
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) April 8, 2022
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.
SUGAR: USDA projects that decreases in 2021/22 U.S. sugar supply combined with an increase in use lowers ending stocks to 1,566,978 short tons, raw value (STRV) for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.53 percent.
U.S. sugar supply for 2021/22 is decreased 60,343 STRV as decreases in sugar production are only mildly offset by an increase in high-tier tariff imports. Beet sugar production is decreased by 50,670 STRV to 5,338,098. About half of the reduction is attributable to lower production expected out of Michigan due to increased beet pile shrink reported by processors this month and fewer sugarbeets imported from Canada for processing than originally expected. With production in the Red River Valley region expected to run unusually long into the first week of June, production is reduced marginally to reflect increased risk to sugarbeets stored in increasingly warmer conditions. Also, production in California is expected to be slightly lower than originally forecast. Beet campaigns in the Pacific Northwest and Great Plains are planned to be over by the date of this WASDE and their production estimates made in late March have been incorporated into projected beet sugar production. Florida sugar production is decreased 22,335 STRV to 1,937,235 based on lower sucrose recovery from processors’ continuing analyses of the effect of late January freezes on the crop. Texas sugar production is reduced by 2,000 STRV to 128,000 based on processor reporting. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 14,662 STRV on recorded entries of raw sugar in the first two months of 2022. Projected high-tier tariff imports of refined sugar are unchanged from last month.
U.S. sugar deliveries for human consumption are increased by 65,000 STRV to 12,365,000 based on strong to-date deliveries by beet processors and on higher-than-expected direct consumption imports though the end of February.
Sugar production for 2021/22 in Mexico is increased by 187,690 metric tons (MT) to 6,166,690. Analysis of production data through week 26 (March 26) of the campaign implies that sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery will likely be higher than forecast but area harvest is likely to be about 10,000 hectares lower. The new forecast for yield is 69.038 MT per hectare; recovery is 11.29 percent; and area harvested is 791,383 hectares. This projection is close to the third estimate recently released by CONADESUCA in Mexico. They estimate production at 6,174,813 MT. They project a higher area harvested than USDA, a lower yield, and about the same level of recovery. Sugar exports are projected to increase by the same amount as the production increase. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged from last month.
DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.
All the best,
David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III