World Agricultural and Demand Estimates August 12, 2024

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased 20,086 short tons, raw value (STRV) to
14.702 million on an increase in imports only partially offset by a reduction in production. Beet
sugar production is decreased by 60,970 STRV on higher processor-reported shrink, a small
reduction in sucrose recovered from sliced beets, and a reduction in sugar from desugared
molasses. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 11,689 STRV on processors’ SMD
reporting of production occurring in June. Imports are increased by 69,368 STRV to 3.689
million. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 58,817 STRV on the strong pace through early
August. Raw high-tier for the year is estimated at 761,664 STRV (up from 700,000 last month)
and refined is at 267,153 STRV (down slightly from 270,000). Sugar from imported molasses
used as refiners’ melt input is at 58,899 STRV, unchanged from last month. Imports from Mexico
are increased 10,551 STRV on a slight increase in the to-date pace. Deliveries for human
consumption are reduced 50,000 STRV to 12.300 million. Although October-June cane sugar
deliveries are up 271,000 STRV over the same time period last year, beet deliveries are down
139,000 STRV and direct consumption imports are down even more by 328,000 STRV. Other
deliveries are increased 13,000 STRV, mostly on deliveries for re-export sugar-containing
products. Greater supply and the reduction in use combine to increase ending stocks by 57,086
STRV to 2.043 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.14 percent.

U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is increased 240,006 STRV on a combined increase in beginning
stocks and sugar production more than offsetting a slight reduction in imports. Beet sugar
production is projected at 5.363 million STRV, an increase over last month due to a NASS
forecast of national sugarbeet yield of 32.9 tons/acre (higher than last year’s 31.2 tons/acre)
resulting in a strong sugarbeet production forecast of 35.708 million tons. Cane sugar in Florida
is increased by 61,828 STRV to 2.066 million on processors’ projections. The increase is
consistent with the NASS forecast of sugarcane production in Florida of 18.286 million tons,
about 0.5 percent higher than 2023/24. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced 50,000
STRV to 12.300 million in line with the reduction made in 2023/24. Ending stocks are residually
projected at 1.985 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-stock ratio of 15.87 percent, up from
13.50 percent last month.

Mexico sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased by larger imports only marginally reduced by a
small decrease in production from last month. Imports for consumption are increased by 50,000
metric tons (MT) to 660,000 on entries occurring in June on high domestic prices resulting from
low production, and on an appreciation in the dollar-peso exchange rate. Imports for IMMEX are
unchanged at 136,726 MT. Deliveries for human consumption are decreased by 90,000 MT due
to increased imports of lower-priced high fructose corn syrup (HFCS). HFCS is projected to
constitute 26.6 percent of sweetener consumption, above the 10-year average of 25.4 percent.
Ending stocks are increased by 126,517 MT. For 2024/25, supply is increased only by the
increase in beginning stocks. There are very small adjustments to deliveries and ending stocks.
Exports to destinations not under export license are residually projected at 168,646 MT. Exports
to the United States are unchanged at 676,045 MT.