World Agricultural and Demand Estimates April 11, 2024

SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.572 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 175,090 from last month and 651,856 lower than last year. Area harvested is
running over 20,000 hectares below the level forecast by CONADESUCA resulting in the
current USDA projection of 727,116 hectares. Interim analysis based on the
CONADESUCA production data through March 30 supports an increase in sugarcane
yield from last month to 62.25 MT/hectare and also in sucrose recovery to 10.10 percent.
However, the area reduction more than offsets the yield and recovery increases to reach
this month’s projection of sugar production. Production of low polarity sugar is reduced by
107,206 MT to 320,067 as producers have hastened the trend toward more profitable
estandar sugar for the domestic market at the expense of less low polarity sugar. The low
polarity sugar share of total production is at 7 percent, down from 9 percent last month.
Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the U.S. market and like last
year constitutes 75 percent of the total exported, exports to the United States are
projected at 426,757 MT, a decrease of 142,941.
On April 5, the Secretaría de Economía in Mexico announced that it would temporarily
accept imports of sugar intended for use in the IMMEX program until August 31 with each
shipment requiring its approval. This effectively means that imports from the United
States under USDA’s re-export import program can be shipped duty-free into Mexico only
for use in IMMEX. Thus, 50,000-MT worth of Mexico production for IMMEX can be
redirected to deliveries for human consumption. With more net sugar available, IMMEX is
projected 25,000 MT higher at 425,000 MT. Given that Mexico has imported 435,000 MT
of high-tier tariff sugar for consumption through March 31, USDA projects imports in the
pipeline at 40,000 MT, implying imports for consumption at 475,000 MT. Total imports are,
therefore, at 575,000 MT. Exports to other countries are residually projected at 43,914
MT.
U.S. beet sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased by 27,340 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 5.144 million on lower forecast sucrose recovery. Beet pile shrink is
unchanged at 9 percent. Cane sugar production is unchanged. TRQ imports are up
25,086 STRV to 1.775 million on higher imports expected from Argentina and Panama.
TRQ shortfall falls by that same amount to 66,690 STRV. Imports from Mexico decrease
by 167,020 STRV to 498,644 but are largely offset by an increase of high-tier tariff
imports of 140,000 STRV (all raw sugar) to bring the total to 855,000. This pace-to-date
adjustment reflects that imports for the remaining 6 months of the fiscal year will be close
to imports for the first 6 months. Exports are increased by 37,634 STRV to 197,634 as
increased program exports more than offset a reduction of other sugar exports to Mexico.
Deliveries for consumption are unchanged. Deliveries for human consumption were low
in February due to a likely underreporting of direct consumption imports in February that
will see an offsetting expansion in March. Ending stocks are projected at 1.722 million
STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50 percent.