World Agricultural and Demand Estimates December 9, 2021

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) December 9, 2021
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.

SUGAR: The U.S. sugar supply and use balance for 2020/21 is revised on data revisions made in Sweetener Market Data (SMD). A cane refiner decreased its raw sugar imports for August by 26,295 short tons, raw value (STRV), implying the same sized reduction in ending stocks to 1,701,915. The cane refiner revision, along with a small reduction in total imports (277 STRV) based on U.S. Census trade data, results in a 26,018 STRV increase in Direct Consumption Imports (904,298 STRV) and consequently in deliveries for human consumption (12,135,184 STRV). The ending stocks-to-use ratio is decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 13.8 percent.

Louisiana cane sugar production for 2021/22 is decreased by 71,592 STRV to 1,712,238 on the NASS 4.1 percent reduction in sugarcane yield. U.S. beet sugar production is decreased by 19,871 STRV to 5,393,301. Although SMD reports that U.S. beet processors increased their estimate of sugarbeets harvested (yield increase of 3.6 percent only partially offset by a decrease in area harvested of 3.3 percent), total sugarbeets projected for slicing decreased by 135,207 tons to 33,956,053 due to higher forecast shrink. USDA did not change sucrose recovery, sugar from desugared molasses, or 2022 August-September production in projecting production for the fiscal year. USDA can be expected to revise its projection of sucrose recovery next month when slice data through the end of November becomes available from beet processors. Because the slice data prior to November (August-October) is insufficient for forecasting full season sucrose recovery, the average of recoveries from the 5 preceding years is used until January.

Imports for 2021/22 are increased by 30,812 STRV to 3,075,895. High-tier tariff imports are increased by 50,000 STRV on the basis of actual entries of sugar through the beginning of December and an increase in the projected pace of refined sugar imports. Based on Customs reporting, imports of raw sugar at the high-tier tariff for October 1 through December 3 are 62,493 STRV. Imports of refined sugar for the same period are 15,179 STRV. USDA projects that monthly refined high-tier tariff imports will average about 7,250 STRV December through September. (The average for October-November was 7,590 STRV and the average for January-November was 12,585 STRV.) Imports from Mexico are reduced by 19,188 STRV to 1,064,712 as detailed below in the discussion on the Mexico supply and use. There are no changes from last month for sugar use. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 1,678,349 STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6 percent.

Mexico supply and use for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 are unchanged from last month. Exports to the United States for 2021/22 are projected at 911,218 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 16,422 from last month. Calculated U.S. Needs implied by the December 2021 U.S. Sugar WASDE as set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements is 900,253 MT (1,051,901 STRV). This amount exceeds the Export Limit of 777,723 MT (908,730 STRV) established by the Department of Commerce (DOC) on November 23, 2021. There is an additional export amount of 10,965 MT (12,812 STRV) from the 2020/21 export allocation to Mexico that was permitted by DOC to enter the United States after September 30. Because total Mexico exports for 2021/22 are unchanged from last month at 1,777,193 MT, shipments other than to the United States under export license increase by 16,422 MT to 865,976.

 

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III