World Agricultural and Demand Estimates January 12, 2023
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is increased 178,027 short tons, raw value (STRV) over last month. Revisions for 2021/22 increase 2022/23 beginning stocks by 4,472 STRV. Louisiana production in September 2022 is increased by 19,259 STRV on processor reporting. This is partially offset by an increase in miscellaneous adjustments in use reported in the 2021/22 Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Because September production in Louisiana is a product of the 2022/23 sugarcane harvest, Louisiana production in 2022/23 is adjusted downward by the September 2022 amount but partially offset by an increase in projected production in September 2023. More significantly, Louisiana production is increased due to the January NASS forecast of sugarcane for sugar production increasing by 5.1 percent over last month to 15,818,000 tons. Sucrose recovery is unchanged at 13.48 percent. Production for the fiscal 2022/23 year is now 2,112,885 STRV, up 88,216 over last month.
NASS projects 2022/23 sugarbeet production at 32,574,000, a 2.65 percent reduction, based on lower area harvested and yield. Lower sugarbeet production is more than offset by an increase in sucrose recovery. Based on sugar production data for August through November in the SMD, USDA projects sucrose recovery at 15.000 percent. This is up from last month’s 14.626 percent that was based on historical trend. The combined effect on 2022/23 beet sugar production is an increase of 120,819 STRV to 5,048,318.
Sugar imports for 2022/23 are decreased by 35,480 STRV. Sugar under the 2021/22 TRQ permitted to enter by the extension of the quota year to the end of December was 164,225 STRV and below that estimated last month by 85,943. An offset comes from an increase in high-tier tariff imports by 50,000 STRV to 125,000 due to an expected increase in the pace of high-tier tariff refined sugar imports for the rest of the year and an increase in raw sugar high- tier imports recorded by Customs in December. Entries under the FTA TRQ are slightly increased as well. With no change in use, the change in ending stocks is equal to the supply increase and the resulting ending stocks-to-use ratio is increased to 14.9 percent from 13.5 percent last month.
There are only small adjustments for 2022/23 Mexico supply and use. Exports are increased by a slight 759 metric ton (MT) total of exports to destinations other than those to the United States under license. With no change to ending stocks, deliveries to IMMEX are adjusted down by 759 MT. USDA projects Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 the same as last month at 5.900 million MT. USDA estimates that the sugar production campaign through the end of December is at least 15 percent behind the pace established over the preceding 9 years. Although there is some confidence that the pace will be accelerated, the evidence to date is lacking. The pace of the campaign will continue to be closely monitored.
DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.
All the best,
David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III