World Agricultural and Demand Estimates June 12, 2024

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) June 12, 2024

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is decreased 34,257 short tons, raw value (STRV) to
14.377 million on lower production partially offset by an increase in imports. Beet sugar
production is decreased 50,040 STRV mainly on lower sugar from desugared molasses
forecast by processers and also on slightly higher beet pile shrink and slightly lower recovery.
Imports from Mexico are reduced 31,434 STRV on a reduction in Mexico production of below
99.2 polarity sugar. More than offsetting is an increase in high tier tariff/Other sugar. High-tier
raw and refined sugar are on pace to meet the combined total of 855,000 STRV estimated in
the WASDE. The “Other” component is the raw sugar equivalent of refiners molasses
imported by SMD cane sugar reporters as an input in the production of refined cane sugar.
The molasses is reported by the U.S. Census under the HTS 1703.10.3000 and is consistent
with Additional U.S. Note 10 that distinguishes it as molasses distinct from sugar.
USDA/WAOB estimates the raw sugar-equivalent quantity of product used in refiners’ melt
operations at a monthly average of 3,929 STRV. Extending this monthly average for the
remaining 5 months of 2023/24 and the 12 months of 2024/25 increases High Tier/Other by
47,146 STRV over last month in both years. This inclusion in the supply balance leads to a
correct calculation of the Direct Consumption Imports, a component of deliveries for human
consumption in Use.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 18,959 STRV as lower beginning stocks and
reduced production more than offset an increase in imports. U.S. cane sugar production in
Florida for 2024/25 is decreased 31,848 STRV to 2.004 million on processers’ forecasts in
the SMD. Use is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are projected at 1.445 million
STRV for a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.51 percent.
Mexico production for 2023/24 is estimated at 4.718 million metric tons (MT), an increase of
69,067 over last month. While sugarcane yield at 62.50 MT/hectare and recovery at 10.20
percent are very close to estimates from last month, late season production is picking up on
increases in area harvested to a total of around 740,000 hectares. The low polarity sugar
share of total production continues its downward trend and is now estimated at 6.00 percent,
down from 6.5 percent last month. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported
to the U.S. market and constitutes 71 percent of the total exported, exports to the United
States are projected at 398,704 MT. Imports for consumption are increased 21,000 MT to
496,000 on estimates made by CONADESUCA through the end of April. Given that USDA
expects Mexico to import significantly high levels of high-tier tariff sugar to compensate for
relatively low production of 5.189 million MT in 2024/25, Mexico is estimated to carry stocks
over from 2023/24 to reduce imports by 182,159 MT in 2024/25 to 342,655. Following
CONADESUCA’s lead, ending stocks in 2024/25 are increased by 78,277 MT to 978,457 to
cover Use in 2025/26 for 2.5 months before the start of that year’s sugar campaign, up from
2.3 months last month.

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III