World Agricultural and Demand Estimates May 12, 2023

SUGAR: U.S. sugarbeet production for 2023/24 is projected at 33.345 million tons with yield forecast at 30.77 tons/acre and area harvested projected at 1.084 million acres. Recent year regional averages and trends are applied to NASS forecasts of area planted from Prospective Plantings for projected planted-to-harvest ratios and State-level sugarbeet yields. Assuming average regional levels of beet pile shrink and slicing recovery, beet sugar production for the August-July crop year and fiscal year is at 4.961 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Cane sugar production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.264 million STRV. Based on analysis of area and yield developments, production levels in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are expected to be modestly above 2022/23 levels. For 2022/23, Florida cane production is decreased by 28,669 STRV to 2.015 million on processors’ reporting.

TRQ imports for 2023/24 are projected at 1.413 million STRV with levels set at minimum levels consistent with the WTO and FTA bindings and with TRQ shortfall projected at 94,059. Re-export imports are projected at 250,000 STRV and high-tier tariff imports at 120,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico for 2023/24 are projected at 1.517 million STRV. For 2022/23, imports from Mexico are reduced by 64,987 STRV as Mexico is expected to produce less low polarity sugar than previously estimated, and refined exports are reduced to assure that no more than 30 percent of the total is refined. Deliveries for 2022/23 are increased by 75,000 STRV to 12.675 million on pace to date and that amount is carried over to 2023/24. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 1.444 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.26 percent.

Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 5.900 million metric tons (MT). Area harvested is expected to be at a level similar to 2022/23, and yield and recovery are expected to be closer to historical trend. Production in 2022/23 is lowered 175,000 MT to 5.385 million. Sugarcane yield is estimated at a low 59.98 MT/hectare and recovery is estimated at 11.04 percent. Factories are shutting down, in some cases sooner than expected. If the remaining factories follow suit by shutting down earlier than anticipated, production could be lower by even more. The current production estimate for below-99.2 polarity sugar is 767,520 MT. Based on the pace for the first 6 months of the crop year, deliveries for human consumption in 2022/23 are lowered by 82,735 MT to 4.085 million while high fructose corn syrup deliveries are increased by 116,000 MT to 1.407 million. Deliveries for IMMEX in 2022/23 are estimated at 350,000 MT. Until more information becomes available, imports for IMMEX are unchanged at 25,000 MT, the same level as in 2021/22. For 2023/24, deliveries for human consumption are increased on expected population growth and IMMEX deliveries are projected at 500,000 MT, a return to trend levels. Stocks for both years are calculated at levels consistent with having enough sugar available for 2.3 months to meet delivery requirements in the succeeding year before the new sugarcane campaign begins in November. Exports for 2023/24 are projected residually at 1.298 million MT and all will go to the U.S. market under export license.