World Agricultural and Demand Estimates May 12, 2025

SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2025/26 is projected at 5.180 million short tons, raw value (STRV).

Harvested area is based on Prospective Plantings (less California) and a 10-year average of harvested-

planted ratios for sugarbeet-producing States. Good planting progress extending into early May implies

good prospects for sugarbeet yields at 31.863 tons/acre at the national level. Recovery is projected at

14.79 percent based on the 10-year national average. Sugar from desugared molasses is projected at

400,000 STRV on increases in capacity installed since last year at this time. Cane sugar production for

2025/26 is projected at 4.105 million STRV, an 128,000-STRV increase (3 percent) from 2024/25 based

on modest acreage growth in Louisiana and stable acreage in Florida. Parameters (sugarcane yield and

sucrose recovery) are based on recent years’ averages. TRQ imports for 2025/26 are projected at 1.419

million STRV consistent with minimum access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs.

Re-export imports are projected at 200,000 STRV and imports from Mexico are at 668,925 STRV. High-

tier tariff raw sugar imports are projected at zero. High-tier tariff imports of refined sugar are projected at

131,374 STRV, reflecting a 50 percent reduction from 2024/25 as competition from domestically

processed sugar increases. This reduction is expected to accelerate for the remainder of the calendar

2025 year with the monthly average for the January-September period in 2026 stabilizing at 10,000

STRV. For 2024/25, high-tier refined imports, according to Customs data, amounted to about 252,000

STRV through the first week of May. Imports for the remainder of the fiscal year are estimated at about

85,100 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption for 2024/25 are decreased 90,000 STRV to 12.150

million reflecting a sustained decreasing trend during the first 6 months of the fiscal year. This amount is

carried over to 2025/26. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 1.436 million STRV for an ending

stocks-to-use ratio of 11.62 percent.

Mexico production for 2025/26 is projected at 5.094 million metric tons (MT). Based on FAS Mexico City

reporting, area harvested is expected to be 760,000 hectares, sugarcane yield at 64.2 MT/hectare, and

factory recovery at 10.44 percent. Production has yet to recover from the effects of severe drought from

two seasons ago. Imports for 2024/25 are estimated at 189,000 MT and projected for 2025/26 at 142,000

MT. Most of these imports are for the IMMEX products re-export program. It is recognized that imports

into IMMEX facilities are constituting an increasing share of sweetener deliveries into that sector along

with increased use of high-fructose corn syrup. Exports to the United States for 2025/26 are projected at

572,489 MT on the assumption that Mexico authorities expect that the U.S. additional specialty TRQ will

be set no lower than the level of 2024/25 (231,485 STRV) before the July WASDE. Ending stocks for

both 2024/25 and 2025/26 are projected at about 1.081 million MT. Ending stocks now include 150,000

MT of below 99.2 polarity sugar intended for export into the United States in the first quarter of the fiscal

year.