World Agricultural and Demand Estimates October 12, 2021
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) October 2021
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.
September Report Summary: SUGAR: U.S. beet sugar production for 2021/22 is increased by 123,841 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5,201,683. NASS sugarbeet yield and area harvested forecasts in the September Crop Production report imply national sugarbeet production of 34.612 million tons, an increase of 2.7 percent relative to last month. Assuming average recovery, shrink, and recovery from desugared molasses, 2021/22 crop year production is forecast at 5,112,075 STRV, up from 4,988,235 last month. Adjustments made for expected August-September production in 2021 and 2022 plus sugar from imported sugarbeets from Canada yields the fiscal year 2021/22 production projection. Cane sugar production in Florida is decreased by 10,000 STRV to 2,005,000 on processor reporting. There are no changes to production in Louisiana as neither NASS nor the processors made any adjustments related to Hurricane Ida’s impact as damage assessments are still underway.
Monthly high-tier tariff sugar imports covering the period July 2020 through May 2021 have now been revised by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the changes are incorporated into USDA’s Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Implied sugar WASDE changes from last month are for an increase in 2019/20 sugar imports of 22,379 STRV to 4,165,219 and an increase of that same amount for deliveries for human consumption to 12,246,183 STRV.
On August 24, 2021, the USDA increased the 2020/21 raw sugar TRQ by 90,100 metric tons, raw value (MTRV) and also extended the TRQ entry period through October 31, 2021. With the increase, the overall 2020/21 raw sugar TRQ is 1,207,295 MTRV. On August 26, 2021, USTR provided notice of country allocations of the raw sugar TRQ increase. The USDA estimates that 245,160 MTRV of the total raw sugar TRQ will not enter in September but 177,160 MTRV of that amount will enter in October. This implies a raw sugar TRQ shortfall of 68,000 MTRV or 74,957 STRV. On August 26, 2021, the Commerce Department at the request of USDA increased the Mexico 2020/21 Export Limit by 17,527 STRV of Additional U.S. Needs Sugar of a polarity of less than 99.5 degrees. This sugar is meant to be entered on or before September 30. The USDA increased re-export imports for 2020/21 by 70,000 STRV to 315,000 on the pace to date. Total imports for 2020/21 are now estimated at 3,169,134 STRV, just down slightly from last month.
On September 13, 2021, the USDA is to announce in the Federal Register the 2021/22 raw sugar TRQ at 1,117,195 MTRV and the refined sugar TRQ at 222,000 MTRV.
Imports for 2021/22 are projected at 3,211,813 STRV, an increase of 75,872 over last month. Changes include an increase in sugar TRQ entries of 415,747 STRV as detailed above and in high-tier tariff imports of 25,000, now totaling 75,000. Imports from Mexico are reduced by 364,875 STRV to 1,083,900. The raw sugar shortfall for 2021/22 is unchanged at 99,208 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption for 2020/21 are increased by 75,000 STRV to 12,200,000 on the strong pace of Direct Consumption Imports (that is, imports by entities that do not report to SMD). This estimate is carried over to the deliveries’ projection for 2021/22. Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 1,665,593 STRV, which is marginally lower than last month, and the implied ending stocks-to-use ratio is at 13.5 percent.
DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.
All the best,
David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III