World Agricultural and Demand Estimates September 12, 2022

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) September  12, 2022

The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum.

SUGAR: U.S. 2021/22 sugar stocks are reduced by 74,093 short tons, raw value (STRV) as combined lower production and imports are only partially offset by lower use. Beet sugar production is lowered by 53,440 STRV on a small reduction in estimated sucrose recovery from crop year sliced sugarbeets and also less sugar (about 20,000 STRV) from desugared molasses. Beet sugar production in August-September 2022 is still estimated at 500,000 STRV. Cane sugar in Texas is reduced a small amount on revised processor reporting. Imports are reduced by 72,615 STRV. Imports of 117,615 STRV under the 2021/22 raw sugar TRQ are now expected to enter after September 30 in fiscal year 2022/23 as permitted by the USDA extension of the quota year. Although USDA extended the quota year time limit by two additional months from October 31 to December 31, there is no expected reduction in the raw sugar TRQ shortfall of 77,162 STRV. Partially offsetting the TRQ import decrease is a 45,000-STRV increase in high-tier tariff imports, due mainly to high duty raw sugar imports made by refiners in August. Deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 50,000 STRV to 12,550,000 on lower-than-expected direct consumption imports in July and projected for August and September.

For 2022/23, cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 40,000 STRV on the NASS increase in forecast sugarcane production. Florida cane sugar production is decreased by 31,537 STRV based on processors’ forecasts submitted to USDA. Beet sugar production is decreased by 18,421 STRV on lower sugarbeet production forecast by NASS. An increase in sugarbeet production in the Red River Valley is more than offset by reduced production in the Great Plains. Imports of sugar from Mexico are decreased by 137,405 STRV to 1,618,775. This projected reduction is made on the U.S. Needs calculation as provided in the CVD Suspension Agreement governing exports from Mexico to the United States of sugar for consumption. There are no changes to use. Ending stocks are projected at 1,710,386 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.

There are no changes from last month for Mexico sugar supply and use for either 2021/22 or 2022/23.

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III