World Agricultural and Demand Estimates September 12, 2024

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is increased 239,152 short tons, raw value (STRV)
to 14.941 million on increases in production and imports. Beet sugar production is increased
by 41,049 STRV mostly on higher expected production occurring in August and September
from the early season 2024 sugarbeet crop. Likewise, cane sugar production in Louisiana is
increased by 53,024 STRV on higher expected production in September from the early
season 2024 sugarcane crop. Imports are increased by 145,000 STRV on increases for re-
export imports (up 32,000) and high-tier tariff/other imports (up 82,400 STRV). The raw high-
tier tariff estimate is at 824,380 STRV and the refined high-tier tariff estimate is at 289,574.
Calendar year FTA imports expected in the fourth quarter of 2024 arrived in August, adding
25,600 STRV to 2023/24 but reducing FTA imports for 2024/25 by the same amount. Imports
from Mexico are increased for small amounts expected to enter in August and September.
Use is increased modestly as increased re-export product deliveries are only partially offset
by a reduction in exports. Residually-estimated ending stocks stand at 2.278 million STRV
for a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.0 percent, up from 16.1 last month.
U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased by 208,276 STRV as decreases in imports and
production are only partially offset by greater beginning stocks. Imports are down 403,124
STRV mostly on lower imports expected to enter from Mexico. Cane sugar production is
increased for Louisiana on higher expected sugarcane yield forecast by NASS but
processors in Florida expect a modest decrease in sugarcane yields to reduce sugar
production. Beet sugar production is projected at 5.311 million STRV, a decrease from last
month due to a lower NASS forecast of national sugarbeet area. There are no changes from
last month for use. Ending stocks are projected at 1.777 million STRV for a stocks-to-use
ratio of 14.2 percent.
For 2023/24, Mexico has a small increase in imports for consumption bringing the total up to
679,000 metric tons (MT). Imports for IMMEX are unchanged at 136,700 MT. Decreased
domestic deliveries to the IMMEX program more than offset a small increase in deliveries for
human consumption. The end result of these small adjustments is to increase carryover
stocks by 22,344 MT. For 2024/25, production, imports, deliveries, and ending stocks are all
unchanged from last month. The increase in initial supply implies a one-to-one increase in
Mexico exports up to 867,035 MT.
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) uses the September WASDE to set the Mexico
Export Limit for the period beginning on October 1. The Export Limit will be the higher of
exports needed to result in an U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent multiplied by
0.7 or the Export Limit from the July WASDE. Because the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs
from this WASDE calculated at 262,035 MT is lower than the Export Limit of 394,963 MT
established by the DOC on July 15, the latter amount is used for projecting exports to the
United States in the WASDE. Exports to destinations not under license are projected at
529,012 MT.