USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook April 17, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook April 17, 2024

U.S. Sugar Supply Raised on Higher Imports
In the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the U.S. 2023/24 sugar
supply is raised from last month by 58,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.474 million as a
27,000-STRV reduction to 9.215 million in domestic sugar production is offset by an 86,000-STRV
increase to 3.417 million in imports (table 1). Although cane sugar production is unchanged at
4.071 million STRV, beet sugar production is reduced 27,000 STRV to 5.144 million on a lower
forecast for sucrose recovery.
A 167,000-STRV reduction in imports from Mexico to a 17-year low of 499,000 STRV is offset by
the combined 253,000-STRV increases in sugar imported under the raw sugar tariff-rate quota
(TRQ), re-export programs, and high-tier duty. Raw sugar TRQ imports are up by 25,000 STRV
to 1.303 million on higher volume expected from Argentina and Panama. Re-export program
imports are raised 88,000 STRV to 288,000 on the expectation that U.S. program participants
will take advantage of Mexico’s April 5 announcement that temporarily allows duty-free imports
of sugar participating in the U.S. re-export import programs to fulfill Industria Manufacturera,
Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación (IMMEX) requirements. Mexico’s sugar imports for
IMMEX purposes are correspondingly increased by 88,000 STRV (or 75,000 metric tons raw
value). (See the Mexico Outlook section of this report). U.S. high-tier duty raw sugar imports are
raised by 140,000 STRV to a record 615,000 on the assumption that the continued strong pace
will continue particularly given the decline in expected raw sugar imports from Mexico. With the
refined sugar component unchanged at 240,000 STRV, total high-tier duty imports are raised to
855,000 STRV, also a record, overtaking Mexico as the second largest import source in 2023/24
behind raw sugar TRQ.
U.S. exports are raised by 38,000 STRV to 198,000, of which 88,000 represents the portion of
U.S. re-export program sugar that will be exported to Mexico after the April 5 announcement.
The remaining (110,000 STRV) represents U.S. exports through February (70,000 STRV) and
additional volume expected based on pace (40,000 STRV). Domestic deliveries for consumption
remain at 12.450 million STRV. With nonfood use delivery also unchanged at 105,000 STRV,
use is increased by 38,000 to 12.753 million. Since the increase in supply more than offsets that
of use, ending stocks are up from last month by 21,000 STRV to 1.722 million, which translates
to a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio, up from last month’s 13.4 percent.