World Agricultural and Demand Estimates March 8, 2024

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) March 8, 2024

SUGAR: Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.747 million metric tons (MT), a
decrease of 127,518 from last month and also 476,766 lower than last year. The
sugarcane harvest in Mexico continues to lag at levels unprecedented in recent times. All
relevant production parameters (yields and recovery) through March 2 are several
deviations below 10-year averages with no improvement being seen as time advances.
Interim analysis based on the latest CONADESUCA data implies a full-season national
sugarcane yield of 61.9 MT/hectare which is lower than last month and sucrose recovery
of 9.97 percent, also lower than last month and at a record low. Eastern growing regions
less affected by drought, like in the Northeast and Pacific regions, have had unexpectedly
low sucrose recovery levels, likely due to the high cost of fertilizers for a second year in a
row. At this point, harvested area presents the most uncertainty as many fields may not
yield enough sugarcane to be worth harvesting. The pace of harvested area will be
closely monitored each succeeding harvest week.
The production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States is projected at 9.0
percent of total production. Most low polarity sugar is produced in the eastern regions
with low sucrose recovery. Some analysis suggests a switching from the production of
low polarity sugar to estandar sugar that commands a higher price in the domestic
market. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the U.S. market and,
like last year, constitutes 75 percent of the total exported; exports to the United States
are projected at 569,698 MT. Exports to other countries are unchanged at 25,000 MT and
total exports at 594,698 MT are down 114,054 from last month. Deliveries are decreased
by 55,217 MT to 4.593 million on the pace to date and imports are residually projected at
494,098 MT, down 52,440 from last month.
U.S. sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased by 109,050 short tons, raw value (STRV)
on lower beet sugar production only partially offset by increases in cane sugar
production. Beet sugar production is down 155,761 STRV on higher beet pile shrink
mostly due to warmer-than-average temperatures in the Red River Valley and Michigan
and on lower sucrose recovery reported in aggregate by beet processors. Cane sugar
production is projected higher by 46,711 STRV on higher production in Florida mostly
offsetting a small reduction in Texas. USDA increased the raw sugar TRQ by 137,789
STRV citing the authority given to the Secretary of Agriculture under the Additional U.S.
Note 5 of HTS Chapter 17 instead of the more usual legislative authority granted by the
U.S. Congress. This increase is mostly offset by reduced imports from Mexico. There is
no change to high-tier tariff imports: they remain at a record 715,000 STRV. There were
no changes to use. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.701 million for an ending
stocks-to-use ratio of 13.38 percent, down from 14.20 last month.

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III