USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook February 14, 2024
Mexico Production Lowered; U.S. Ending Stocks Raised
In the February 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the forecast
for Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar production is reduced from last month by 141,000 metric tons (MT),
actual weight, to 4.875 million MT. This is the lowest in more than a decade and the first time
that production would fall below 5 million MT since 2010/11. Consequently, exports to the U.S.
are reduced by 105,000 MT to 684,000, also the lowest since 2010/11. With deliveries
unchanged and ending stocks set to a 2.5-months’ worth of target ending stocks, Mexico’s total
sugar imports are residually increased by 36,000 MT to 547,000, the highest in 14 years.
The U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply is lowered from last month by 23,000 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 14.520 million on lower beet sugar production and imports from Mexico offsetting the
higher forecast for cane sugar production and high-tier sugar imports. Deliveries for human
consumption are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.450 million based on pace, bringing down
total use by the same magnitude to 12.715 million STRV. With a larger downward revision in
use offsetting the supply reduction, ending stocks are increased by 52,000 STRV to 1.805
million. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is 14.2 percent, up by half a percentage point
from last month’s 13.7 percent.
Vidalina Abadam, coordinator
DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.
All the best,
David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III