USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook March 16, 2026

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook March 16, 2026

U.S. 2025/26 Sugar Supply Is Increased; Mexico’s 2025/26 Sugar Balance Sheet Is Mostly Unchanged

The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.197 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up

55,000 STRV from last month, as a decrease in domestic sugar production (mostly in Florida)

is more than offset by increases in imports (high-tier duty and re-export program). Sugar

deliveries for human consumption are raised 117,000 STRV to 12.165 million, primarily on

larger-than-expected beet sugar deliveries and direct consumption imports through January.

Given no changes to the other use categories, total sugar use is raised to 12.320 million STRV.

With the increase in use more than offsetting the supply increase, ending stocks of sugar are

reduced 62,000 STRV to 1.878 million. The resulting sugar stocks-to-use ratio is 15.2 percent,

down 0.7 percentage points but higher than the expected 13.5 percent. This is because (per

the suspension agreements) the Export Limit in March (5,200 STRV), which the U.S.

Department of Commerce sets at 100 percent of U.S. Needs to achieve a 13.5 percent stocks-

to-use ratio, cannot be lower than the Export Limit previously established in December

(219,638 STRV). Since the Export Limit previously established in December is higher, it is used

in the USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

The main change on Mexico’s 2025/26 balance sheet is a 14,000-metric tons (MT) actual

weight reduction in imports. Domestic sugar deliveries are reduced by the same magnitude.

Given these changes, Mexico’s sugar exports to other countries (outside of the suspension

agreements) are residually raised 14,000 MT to 646,000, the highest since 2018/19. Mexico’s

sugar production remains at 5.024 million MT.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator