USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook August 18 2025

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook August 18, 2025

U.S. 2025/26 Sugar Supply Is Raised; Mexico’s

2025/26 Balance Sheet Is Mostly Unchanged

The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.325 million short tons, raw value (STRV). This

number is up more than 500,000 STRV from last month, as the increases in beginning stocks

and a record-high 9.428 million-STRV domestic production more than offset the reduction in

imports under free trade agreement (FTA) tariff-rate quotas (TRQ). Beginning stocks are raised

to a 25-year high on a combination of upward adjustment to the 2024/25 supply (record-level

beet sugar production, strong pace of imports under the re-export and polyhydric programs,

and additional entries of sugar imports paying the high-tier duty) that more than offset the

2024/25 increase in use (larger sugar exports and sugar deliveries for polyhydric alcohol).

Given that the 2025/26 sugar use is unchanged at 12.165 million STRV, ending stocks are

raised by the same magnitude as that of the supply. The corresponding stocks-to-use ratio is

17.8 percent, up from last month’s 13.5 percent, and would be the second largest behind

2024/25 (19.9 percent) since 2012/13, thus reflecting 2 consecutive years of relatively high

sugar inventories.

Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar supply is slightly increased, with the conclusion of the sugar campaign.

Mexico’s 2025/26 balance is mostly unchanged, except for a 34,000-metric tons (MT) reduction

to beginning stocks. Exports outside of the sugar suspension agreements, which are mostly to

countries besides the United States, are residually lowered by the same amount to 274,000

MT, to maintain a reasonable target level for ending stocks. Mexican sugar exports to the

United States are unchanged at 375,947 MT. This volume will be recalculated by the U.S.

Department of Commerce using next month’s World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

report to achieve a U.S. stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent according to the provisions of the

suspension agreements.

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator