USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 2020

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 2020

Sugar Production Lowered for 2020/21; Larger

Imports Boost Ending Stocks

Sugar production is lowered in 2020/21 driven by reduced cane sugar production. Early harvest in Louisiana boosts cane sugar production in 2019/20, but leads to diminished 2020/21 output. Similarly, an upward revision to estimated August-September beet sugar production results in stronger 2019/20 production. Beet sugar production in 2020/21 is raised because the reallocation effect of the early production is more than offset by a larger sugar beet crop. Imports in 2020/21 are raised based on expectations that some sugar from the 2019/20 tariff- rate quota (TRQ) will arrive in October instead of September. Total 2020/21 supplies are raised, resulting in higher ending stocks, despite stronger projected deliveries. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2019/20 and 2020/21 are estimated at 13.8 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively.

Mexico’s production is unchanged from the previous estimate. Deliveries of sugar and high- fructose corn syrup (HFCS) are both forecast lower in 2019/20. Beginning stocks in 2020/21 are boosted, while exports, total deliveries, and ending stocks are also adjusted slightly higher.

Andrew Sowell, coordinator
Ronald Lord and Michael McConnell, contributors

Michael McConnell, coordinator  michael.mcconnell@ers.usda.gov

DW Montgomery & Company has provided extensive market and contractual expertise within the sugar industry for over 70 years. Our family has now three generations working within the business and has grown to include a large variety of organic and natural ingredients. It is our pleasure to serve you and assist you in your purchasing needs.

All the best,

David Montgomery, Jr., Paul Montgomery, Andrew Montgomery, and David Montgomery III