World Agricultural and Demand Estimates January 12, 2026

SUGAR: The U.S. sugar supply is projected to increase marginally as increases in

production more than offset a reduction in imports. Sugar production is projected at 9.381

million short tons, raw value (STRV). Based on processor forecasts in the January

Sweetener Market Data (SMD), cane sugar in Louisiana is projected at 2.197 million STRV

(up 35,377 over December) and Florida is unchanged at 2.082 million STRV. Based on

January NASS forecasts of sugarbeet production, beet sugar production is projected at 5.102

million STRV, a small increase of 3,648. Beet pile shrink is the same as last month as

forecast by processors at 8.66 percent. Analysis of beet slice recovery through November

supports a projection of the season-long recovery very close to the 10-year average of 14.80

percent used in previous WASDE projections and is also close to the processors’ forecast of

14.95 percent in the SMD. Imports are reduced by 33,591 STRV to 2.255 million, mostly on a

reduction in the sugar equivalent of molasses imported by refiners as an input in the refining

process. U.S. sugar use is decreased by 50,000 STRV on lower shipments of sugar to be

exported to Mexico. Deliveries are unchanged. Ending stocks are residually projected at

1.922 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.75 percent, up from 15.24 last

month.

Mexico sugar production is projected at 5.047 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 5.8

percent over last year but down 47,000 MT from last month. The increase over last year is

due to the return of seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states in mid-2025 and to

the return of area to be harvested that had suffered the effects of severe drought two years

ago. Although the harvest was expected to face delays due to devastating October rains and

flooding in the states of Puebla, Veracruz, and San Luis Potosí, the delays have been much

more severe than anticipated. Area harvested through January 3 has amounted to only

71,460 hectares, much lower than the initial CONADESUCA forecast of 139,018 and has led

to a more conservative expected total year production total. Deliveries are increased over

last year to 4.320 million MT on higher domestic sugar availability and lower prices but still

burdened by increases in taxes on sweetened beverages. Total exports are about the same

as projected last month and exports to the United States are constrained at 187,973 MT dueWASDE-667-4

to the low Export Limit under the Suspension Agreements implied by U.S. high sugar

inventories