World Agricultural and Demand Estimates September 12, 2025

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024/25 is decreased 2,700 short tons, raw value (STRV) to

14.716 million on a decrease in beet sugar production more than offsetting an increase in

imports. Beet sugar production is decreased 83,500 STRV to 5.332 million mostly on

processors’ final crop year estimate of sugarbeets sliced being decreased by 380,000 tons

from last month. Re-export imports are increased 35,000 STRV to 360,000 on pace-to-date

and high-tier tariff imports are similarly increased 45,800 STRV. Total year raw sugar high-tier

is estimated at 463,000 STRV; refined high-tier at 392,000 STRV; and Other (molasses –

sugar equivalent) at 55,000 STRV. With sugar use unchanged, ending stocks increase by the

change in supply.

U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is decreased 184,000 STRV mostly on a decrease in imports

from Mexico totaling 220,000 STRV (see below) more than offsetting increased production.

Beet sugar production is increased 36,360 STRV on a higher sugarbeet production forecast

by NASS from higher yield and area harvested in Crop Production. Cane sugar production is

increased on Florida processors’ forecasts in Sweetener Market Data but largely offset by

lower production in Louisiana on a lower yield forecast by NASS.

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) uses the September Sugar WASDE to set the

Mexico Export Limit for the period beginning on October 1. The Export Limit will be the higher

of Mexico exports needed to result in an U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent

multiplied by 0.7 or the Export Limit from the July WASDE. With the Target Quantity of U.S.WASDE-664-4

Needs from this WASDE calculated below zero, the Export Limit of 219,638 STRV (187,973

metric tons) established by the DOC on July 14, 2025, is the USDA projection of imports

under license from Mexico in 2025/26.