World Agricultural and Demand Estimates May 12, 2026

SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.722 million short tons, raw value

(STRV). Relatively low national planted area from Prospective Plantings is 1.063 million acres.

Applying the 10-year average of harvested-planted ratios for sugarbeet-producing States yields

harvested area of 1.039 million acres, the lowest level since 2019/20. Less than ideal planting

progress extending into early May implies sugarbeet yields at 30.21 tons/acre at the national level,

the lowest projected since 2022/23. Beet pile shrink is forecast at 7.063 percent, a 10-year average,

and projected recovery from sliced beets is 14.79 percent, also a 10-year average. Sugar from

desugared molasses is projected at 375,000 STRV. Sugar produced from imported sugarbeets is

30,000 STRV, close to the value for 2025/26. Cane sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at

4.088 million STRV, a 130,000-STRV reduction from 2025/26. The winter freeze in Florida affected

sugarcane planted earlier in the preceding fall for harvest in 2026/27 with a loss of 75 days of growth

in those areas. The aggregate effect on yield is uncertain but is here projected to be at only 41.75

tons/acre. Processors will weigh in with their forecast next month. Louisiana production is projected

at 2.146 million STRV with a 5,000 acre expansion but a lower yield than the record for crop year

2025/26. TRQ imports for 2026/27 are projected at 1.422 million STRV consistent with minimum

access WTO bindings and with allocations set for various FTAs. Re-export imports are projected at

300,000 STRV. Imports from Mexico are at 1.046 million STRV based on U.S. Needs from the

AD/CVD Suspension Agreements. High-tier tariff raw sugar imports are projected at zero. High-tier

tariff imports of refined sugar and sugar from imported molasses are projected at 492,000 STRV, just

below the estimate for 2025/26. Use is carried over from 2025/26 at 12.389 million STRV. Ending

stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 1.673 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.50

percent.

Sugar production for 2025/26 is decreased 28,582 STRV to 9.239 million STRV. Florida processors

report a gain of 10,900 over last month as the harvest is very close to being over. Beet sugar is down

39,500 STRV on estimated declines in sugar recovery in the final periods of beet slicing. High-tier

raw sugar imports are increased 141,317 STRV and imports from other sources are unchanged.

Actual raw imports increased 41,317 STRV since last month and sources indicate that about 100,000

STRV are likely to enter during the remainder of this fiscal year. Use for 2025/26 is unchanged from

last month.

Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production

for 2026/27 is projected at 5.142 metric tons (MT). While seasonal rains during mid-2025 alleviated

the drought conditions experienced during the prior two marketing years, recovery is likely to face

constraints from recent rises in global fertilizer prices and other input costs. Area harvested in

2026/27 is projected at 738,000 hectares; cane sugar is forecasted at 48.25 million MT with a field

yield of 65.4 MT/ha. Sugar consumption is forecast to decrease by 2 percent due to tax increases.

Exports are forecast at 894,788 MT.