World Agricultural and Demand Estimates October 9, 2026

SUGAR: An increase in U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26, combined with a reduction in use,

increases U.S. ending stocks 199,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 2.231 million. Cane

sugar production in Louisiana is increased 53,000 STRV on higher September production

than projected last month. September production is estimated at 119,945 STRV. Partially

offsetting is a reduction in beet sugar production of 37,730 STRV on lower early season

production in August and September projected by processors in the Sweetener Market Data

(SMD). Imports are increased 133,754 STRV, mostly on raw sugar high-tier tariff imports (up

91,608 STRV to 606,057) and re-export imports (up 58,696 STRV to 398,831). Use is

decreased 49,615 STRV as deliveries for human consumption are lowered to 12.392 million

on a slowdown in the pace to date.

U.S. sugar supply for 2026/27 is increased to 14.387 million STRV as increased beginning

stocks and lower use are only partially offset by lower production. Beet sugar production is

decreased 27,200 STRV to 4.742 million reflecting lower national sugarbeet yield reported by

NASS, in addition to the early production change (see above). Louisiana cane sugar

production is decreased to 2.208 million STRV mostly on higher September production for

2025/26 from the current sugarcane crop. There is a partial offset from processors increasing

their percentage of sugarcane area for sugar over for seed. Florida sugar production is

unchanged based on processors’ reporting in the SMD. Imports are only slightly lower than

last month. Projected deliveries for human consumption are carried over from 2025/26

lowering use by 49,615 STRV. Ending stocks are projected at 1.865 million STRV for an

ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.9 percent, up from 13.5 percent last month.

Mexico sugar production for 2025/26 and 2026/27 is unchanged from last month. Deliveries

for human consumption for both years are increased by small amounts based on FAS Mexico

City Post reporting. Exports for 2025/26 are increased to 1.00 million MT based on Post

reporting, and ending stocks are decreased to 1.184 million metric tons (MT). The reduction

of 2026/27 beginning stocks of 185,652 MT implies lower total exports and a small reduction

in ending stocks. Exports under license to the United States at 1.017 million MT are

unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for both years are estimated to have 150,000 MT

of below 99.2 polarity sugar intended for export to the United States.