World Agricultural and Demand Estimates September 11, 2026

SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2025/26 is increased 128,260 short tons, raw value (STRV) to

14.604 million mostly on increases in imports. Imports are increased 120,862 STRV to 2.964

million. High-tier tariff imports are up 86,328 STRV on increased raw sugar entries occurring

mostly at the end of July and also in early September. Imports from Mexico are increased 22,069

STRV to 241,706 on actual entries from Census data through July 31 and Customs data covering

August and the first week of September. The raw sugar TRQ shortfall increased 30,673 STRV

but was mostly offset by an increase in FTA TRQ imports of 28,003 previously forecast to enter in

the fourth quarter of 2026. (FTA TRQ imports for 2026/27 are reduced by the same amount.)

Deliveries for human consumption decreased below expectations in July but not enough to

warrant a decrease in the estimate for 2025/26. Ending stocks increased by the change in supply

to 2.033 million STRV with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.17 percent.

U.S. sugar supply for 2026/27 is decreased 168,282 tons on increases in beginning stocks more

than offset by a reduction in sugar production and imports. Beet sugar production is projected at

4.769 million STRV, a decrease of 22,354 from last month. NASS forecasts national sugarbeet

production at 31.763 million tons on a yield of 31.47 tons/acre and area harvested of 1.009

million acres. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is projected at 2.252 million STRV, a decrease

of 13,852 from last month. The industry is well aware of the mealy bug issues and is actively

working to mitigate its effect on production. The industry maintains it cannot make a forecast of

the mealy bug effect on production until the harvest is well underway. Cane sugar production in

Florida is decreased from last month to 1.819 million STRV based on processors’ reporting. Two

processors not reporting changes last month decreased their forecasts, likely as a consequence

of the effects of the mealy bug infestation. Since July, forecasted production has decreased 9.8

percent to the current projection. Imports are decreased 186,004 STRV, mostly on fewer imports

projected from Mexico consistent with the Suspension Agreements’ definition of U.S. Needs that

results in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent for the September WASDE. Use is

unchanged.

Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.377 million metric tons (MT), a 1 percent

increase from the prior year. While seasonal rains during mid-2025 and so far in 2026 have

helped alleviate the drought conditions experienced in prior marketing years, the ongoing

recovery remains constrained by recent pressures on the agricultural inputs market. Harvested

area for 2026/27 is forecast at 748,000 hectares (ha), an increase of 2 percent. Cane harvest is

forecast at 49.8 million MT with a field yield of 66.6 mt/ha. According to industry sources,

production at the beginning of 2026/27 will focus on below 99.2 polarity sugar production.

Beginning stocks are projected higher at 1.370 million MT. Domestic consumption is expected to

remain flat year-over-year, as the 2026 Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) continues

to limit demand recovery. Exports are projected at 1.387 million MT with shipments to the U.S.

market under the terms of the Suspension Agreements at 1.017. The new Export Limit is 70WASDE-675-4

percent of projected exports at 712,000 MT, an increase of 136,000 established by the

Commerce Department in July. Ending stocks are projected at 1.143 million MT, which includes

150,000 MT of below 99.2 polarity sugar intended to be exported to the United States in the first

quarter of the next fiscal year.