USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook June 16, 2026

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook June 16, 2026

U.S. Sugar Outlook

U.S. Sugar Production Is Raised for 2026/27, Lowered for

2025/26

U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 2026/27 is raised 254,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) from

last month to 9.063 million, as both beet and cane sugar production are increased (table 1).

However, this production outlook remains the lowest since 2019/20 and would be about 2 percent

below the revised fiscal year 2025/26 estimate. The 2026/27 beet sugar output is up 217,000

STRV to 4.939 million STRV but remains 1 percent lower than 2025/26 and the lowest since the

freeze-reduced output in 2019/20. Cane sugar production is increased 37,000 STRV to 4.125

million STRV, but remains 2 percent lower than 2025/26, solely on a larger production outlook for

Florida.

The 2026/27 projection for sugarbeet yield is raised to 31.94 tons (table 2), based on more area

planted by week 19 (week ending May 10, 2026) in the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics

Service (NASS) Crop Progress than projected last month. This year, planting schedules were

delayed in several beet growing areas due to weather issues. Planting progress and yield have

strong positive correlation, with the week 19 timeframe considered a critical cut-off point to achieve

optimal crop development and to allow sugarbeets sufficient time to deposit sugar before harvest.

Sugarbeet acreage is unchanged, as NASS will provide its first official estimate of area planted and

projected area harvested in the June 30 Acreage report, as well as its initial yield estimate in the

August 12 Crop Production report. Based on the initial beet processors’ estimates submitted in the

June USDA, Farm Service Agency, Sweetener Market Data (SMD) report, sugarbeet shrink is

increased to 8.12 percent and sugar from desugared molasses increased to 400,000 STRV.

Florida fiscal year 2026/27 cane sugar production is raised 37,000 STRV from last month to 1.979

million, about the same as 2025/26, after taking into consideration cane processors’ reassessment

of the effect of the February freeze reflected in the SMD-submitted initial forecast (table 3). On the

other hand, Louisiana fiscal year 2026/27 cane sugar production is unchanged at 2.146 million

STRV, down 86,000 from 2025/26, but reflects 5 years of surpassing Florida. The main underlying

assumption in Louisiana is a continuation of moderate acreage growth of about 5,000 acres, while

yield and recovery rate are projected to be more in line with the 5-year average (and thus lower

than last year’s near record for yield and record for recovery rate). For cane, NASS will publish the2

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: June 2026, SSS-M-454, June 17, 2026

USDA, Economic Research Serviceinitial area harvested in the June Crop Production report and the yield in the August Crop

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator