World Agricultural and Demand Estimates July 10, 2026

SUGAR: The Sugar WASDE for July 2026 is updated for changes made in the Sweetener Market

Data (SMD). A company remitted changes in deliveries for human consumption starting in 2019/20

and continuing through April of 2026. The company relied on calculations of ending monthly stocks

that incorporated the errors made in the originally reported deliveries. While the delivery changes

were relatively small on an average monthly basis, the effects on ending-month inventories

accumulated over the period to 145,870 short tons, raw value (STRV) by the end of April 2026. The

July WASDE uses the corrected deliveries and accumulated stocks components in balance sheet

projections for 2025/26 and 2026/27.

Sugar production changes for 2026/27 result from area estimates and forecasts released by NASS in

the June 30 Acreage report. NASS reduced its estimate of national sugarbeet area planted 2.8

percent from Prospective Plantings to 1.033 million acres. NASS forecasts national area harvested at

1.011 million acres, a reduction of 2.6 percent from the harvested area used in the June WASDE. All

else constant, beet sugar production is projected at 4.821 million STRV, a reduction of 117,162 from

last month. NASS forecasts Louisiana sugarcane area harvested at 540,000 acres. This is 5,000

acres more than used in last month’s WASDE and results in a sugar production increase of 20,000

STRV to 2.166 million for 2026/27. NASS lowered Florida area only slightly, but Florida sugar

production is increased 37,000 STRV to 2.016 million on the basis of processors’ estimates in SMD.

Imports are increased 318,545 STRV to 3.579 million mostly on an increase of sugar from Mexico

based on U.S. Needs (by terms of the suspension agreements) resulting in an ending U.S. stocks-to-

use ratio of 13.5 percent in the July WASDE. Although re-export imports for 2025/26 are increased

25,000 STRV to 325,000, they remain at 300,000 for 2026/27. High-tier tariff refined imports are

increased by 17,975 STRV for 2025/26 on pace to date and this carried over to 2026/27. Deliveries

for human consumption for 2025/26 are increased 56,604 STRV to 12.441 million resulting from

updated deliveries recorded in SMD this month and also consistent with pace using the updated data.

Deliveries for 2026/27 are carried over from 2025/26. Ending stocks are projected at 1.697 million

STRV.

Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production

for 2026/27 is projected at 5.377 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 94,000 on good growing

conditions. For 2025/26, production is finishing stronger than anticipated and is now estimated to be

up 74,151 MT to 5.310 million MT. Deliveries for 2025/26 are decreased to 4.241 million MT on pace

and are left unchanged for 2026/27 at 4.226 million. Exports for 2026/27 are increased 94,000 MT in

line with the production increase to 1.292 million, most of which destined to go to the United States

pursuant to the suspension agreements.