USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 16, 2026

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook October 16, 2026

U.S. Sugar Outlook

U.S. Beet Sugar Production Is Lowered for 2025/26 and 2026/27

U.S. fiscal year 2025/26 (October 2025–September 2026) beet sugar production is reduced from

last month by 38,000 STRV to 5.038 million, about 330,000-STRV lower than 2024/25, as

the increase in crop year sugar output is more than offset by a reduction in early season sugar

output. The 2025 crop year beet sugar production (August 2025–July 2026) is raised 21,000 STRV

to 5.148 million on final adjustments to sugarbeet shrink and sucrose recovery. The

current crop year’s (2026) early season production (August–September 2026), which is accounted

for in fiscal year 2025/26, is reduced 58,000 STRV to 596,000 STRV based on the beet

processors’ estimate published in the USDA, Farm Service Agency’s Sweetener Market Data

(SMD).

Amid the ongoing drought conditions, growers in some areas delayed harvest as they held out for

rain and gave additional time for sugarbeets to grow and store sugar. According to USDA’s

October 6 U.S. Agriculture in Drought report, about 48 percent of sugarbeet production is within an

area experiencing drought, down from the previous week’s 60 percent but higher than last year’s

34 percent. As of the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) October 13 Crop

Progress report, overall sugar beet harvest for the 4 major producing U.S. States is 32 percent

complete, behind the 5-year average (36 percent).

Except for North Dakota, the current pace of harvest is lagging the 5-year average for Idaho, Michigan, and Minnesota

For fiscal year 2026/27, U.S. beet sugar production is reduced from last month by 27,000 STRV to

4.742 million, the lowest level since 2019/20 and reflecting 2 consecutive years of decline. This

reduction is mainly based on a lower national sugarbeet yield (from last month’s 31.5 tons per acre

to 30.8 tons, the lowest in 4 years) reported in the USDA, NASS October Crop Production report.

The largest yield decreases were for major producers Minnesota and North Dakota, each down 1.2

tons per acre from last month—as well as for Colorado, Idaho, and Wyoming. These States’

reductions more than offset the increases for Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, and Oregon. Yield is

unchanged for Washington State.

USDA, Economic Research ServiceMeanwhile, the national sugarbeet area harvested is unchanged at 1.009 million acres, the third

lowest level in 47 years. A combination of several factors likely contributed to the acreage

reduction, including a relatively high level of carry-in sugar among sugarbeet processors, high input

costs, and a challenging planting season (due to a combination of weather events). The estimate

for early sugar production next year (August–September 2027) is also unchanged at 654,000

STRV, which is based on a 5-year average (2020/21–2024/25).

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator